Jeffrey Toobin: Roe v. Wade is doomed

I think sometimes we talk about Supreme Court too much in abstractions about dignity and who’s qualified and losing aliquot let’s talk back let’s talk about what America is going to be like it’s different you were going to see 20 States passed laws Banning abortion out right just Banning abortion and because they know that there are now going to be five votes on the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v and abortion will be illegal in a significant part of the United States in 18 months there is just no doubt about that and that’s why they seem to matter so much because they did you know one of my favorite lines about the Supreme Court was by Justice Robert Jackson who served on the court in the 1940s and 50s and he said we are not final because we are infallible we are infallible because we are final there’s somebody has the last and here is the Supreme Court and Roe v Wade is Doom it is gone because Donald Trump won the election and because he’s going to have the chance and because he’s going to have the chance to appoint to Supreme Court just still sitting with v the gravity of what you just said how quickly do think that those changes will come on the state level in a very distinct minority you will see this now is an open political debate people have run for governor I run for governor in my state and while I didn’t do this lots of people have when this question is come up they sell that’s a federal issue well all overturning Roe v Wade does is as Jeffrey points out it returns it to the states so then it suddenly becomes a state issue in 50 States and it’s a part of every state election and it becomes actually mean more important in those State races then it is today and that’s if it happened so I don’t see the 18-month time schedule of of Jeffrey toobin happening but it is possible sometime in the foreseeable future back into this whole conversation and we are talking about on the Democratic front what are you hearing from your Democratic source you thought it was too close to an election in 2016 to make a decision about a Supreme Court Justice then we’re 4 months away from an election now and it’s too close I mean is Ken cuccinelli was saying they are well aware that they’ve got Democrats in the Senate running in red states are going to have very tough votes on a Supreme Court Justice so what the Democrats are saying now is Mitch McConnell the standard that you said for Merrick Garland the standard that you have now cuz we’re closer to an election than we were then and they can save there and they can say they’re down cuz I know what you’re going to say that is not a presidential election making and there you know they they are there trying to hold McConnell up here and I think that you know there is a school of thought that like let’s just get it over with and move on but there are lots of Democrats who were saying not so fast not so fast leverage I don’t think so they gave it away Blockbuster and they threw it away on Neil Gorsuch whenever the Democrats vote whether it was this nomination or the next nomination so the idea that the the that’s in the Senate should have made this terrible mistake by by forcing the Republicans to get rid of the filibuster I think that’s a phony argument no I don’t think it matters a bit that’s just not correct mean you got some stodgy Republicans are who really don’t want to change many things including the majority leader Mitch McConnell and if as I said earlier if they were filibustering a clearly unreasonable nominee then they have been in a better position but they did it on scalise see when the ideological swing of the Court was knotted not at risk and by doing that for such a very reasonable and qualified appointment is Neil Gorsuch they made a major strategic mistake let’s say they hadn’t done it then and and Jeffrey’s correct and Republicans just pitch it now will now that you’re making them pictured in the face of an election now do you think there’s a turnout difference between the do side you bet your sweet patootie there is on this weapon tuning note I want you all to please standby never thought I’d hear that come out of your mouth and cuccinelli but as a fellow Southerner I can’t be totally surprised let’s go to Capitol Hill let’s go to reaction from members of Congress on this big piece of news today that Justice Kennedy is retiring what what are they telling you will Democrats in particular are shaken Senator Blumenthal of Connecticut a Democrat Earth shattering event is going to reshape consequences on the Supreme Court’s for the rest of the majority the rest of our lifetime in some top Democrats are saying that this is nomination should be held over until after the midterm action based on the similar to standard that sooner McConnell espoused during the 2016 presidential race by holding open that bacon Supreme Court seat after President Obama nominated Garland for that seat I Dick Durbin the number to Democrats bring a statement saying that the McConnell set a new standard by giving the American people they’re saying up an upcoming election before court vacancies are filled that’s why they said wait until January to consider the nomination for already brought Republicans are rejecting anything is much different at this is a midterm election not a presidential election they’re saying that that is not the similar standard and Mitch McConnell made very clear on the senate floor just earlier they’re going to move forward on this this this fall asleep replacement also they can do it by on their own after McConnell change filibuster rules last year allowing Neil Gorsuch to be confirmed by essentially a party-line vote now we’re the same standard here as well there 51 Sounders win the Republican 550 John McCain cuz it needs to be absent that means if they’re all 50 stick together they can customer to confirm whoever did President Trump nominate for the band so that’s the big question going forward what are the Republicans can say United State Democrats difficult racist were kind of pill to Modern Motors ultimately crossed the aisle vote with the with the Republicans on this because they too will be feeling a lot of pressure from their base or want to fight very hard to deny replacement for Anthony Kennedy particularly a very cancer replacement that’s going to really wild up the Democratic base as well so this is really reshaping this Senate hear it for the rest of the year on Ultimate is going to dominate action going forward and dominate the landscape for the midterm elections heading into November Brook sounds like you were here Gloria Borger was hearing as well Manu thank you so much up on the hill for us and just looking ahead in this process and who could take that next seat on the nation’s highest court let’s go to our supreme court reporter Ariana Vogue the White House a bit ago saying it we were we were remember the list that was put out during the campaign the 2025 names on the shortlist here and that’s when the betting began right so the list we know and it’s younger people and more conservative cuz that’s key here not only will the president be able to replace Kennedy with somebody more conservative but it’s going to be somebody younger and on the top the list are two former Kennedy clerk right the first one is a Brett Kavanaugh he is a judge hearing Washington he’s up 53 years old and he spend some time on the star investigation and I’ve seen him in the you come to oral arguments a couple of times this term he’s very active another one is Rey Catholic another Kennedy clerk he’s only 51 years old he sits on the 6th circuit and he had an opinion that’s big case that we did a couple of weeks ago that was reversed by the Supreme Court that was his opinion and another one is Thomas Hardiman and her damn it is interesting because he was the runner-up many people say four courses to see President Trump really like his lifestyle ivy league he spent time driving a cab to get his way through school so he’s a big Contender and finally a woman named Amy Coney Barrett that she’s just nominated entering her confirmation hearings a little heated with Dianne Feinstein and afterwards some of the judges supporters said that the Feinstein was going after her on her religion as sort of a litmus test so that’s right now the working list there’s a few others it seems like last week when I was calling around wondering it seem like Cavanaugh was at the top of the list for now and he’s a former Kennedy clerk arjan thank you and let me just put those names back over to Jeff toobin what do you make of those are those three judges sound about right to you as far as the short o sound about right I think on the screen I didn’t I couldn’t tell if Ariana mentioned I’m also Paul who is the new judge he’s also a new Trump nominee to the to the I believe 6 Circuit Court of Appeals he would be the first South Asian on the Green Court also in his late forties but he’s a very likely possibility of particularly if the president has the chance to fill Ruth Bader Ginsburg slot has been very active in issues relating to Catholicism the legal right legal issues relating to Catholicism the Conservative then Kennedy that that what you don’t want the way Donald Trump use that list during the campaign was to show the conservative movement hey I’m one of you I may be a libertine from New York City but I am going to appoint judges who reflect the values of the Evangelical conservative movement and the president has kept his word on that Austin is one of the rest of the country wants to live in a world that judges like that supervise that’s a separate question but in terms of our is the president being candid in telling us what what kind of Judges he’s going to appoint I think the answer is clearly yes proof that conservative said he was conservative had to prove to evangelicals that he would represent them on the issue of abortion and he did that and I think he there’s no there’s no doubt that he will do it again I should also add with one of those is a United States Senator Mike Lee who today told our colleagues on the hill that if it did if he was chosen he would not say no aside from the double negative that means he would say yes so he also he also put himself out there and there is no doubt in my mind the way Donald Trump has governed is to play the bass and so there’s no doubt in my mind that he will continue to do that when he picks next Supreme Court Justice because he doesn’t he doesn’t want to have to wait and see what is someone like adjust his Kennedy do he wants to know when something goes to the court like the travel ban he’s going to win cuz he likes to win for the one point I just want to emphasize here is is it we shouldn’t talk about the Supreme Court exclusively in these abstractions about you no dignity and all that you know what this appointment means is that if you are in the sea for a woman in the state of Texas you were going to have to go elsewhere to get an abortion soon if you are in maybe it’s only 10 states but they’re there will be large parts of the United States abortion is illegal in in the relatively near future because not because of this appointment and because Donald Trump Mike Mitch McConnell as many people believe stole the appointment Merrick Garland and replaced it with with Neil Gorsuch but this is not an abstract thing about who’s the strict constructionists the issue is going to be illegal legal or illegal in major arts in the United States have over blown that kind of overblown challenges ahead the president must appoint an open-minded and fair jurist in Justice Kennedy’s mold we talked about that a bit ago do you think that there will be someone of Kennedy’s kill mold here kinsano and night that’s what I go again as we were talking about earlier the president has exercise to formula in the judicial appointments that comes right out of his campaign and I must say I just stepping back from the Supreme Court and the presidency and looking at our whole system I find that an extremely accountable way to run for office he told us what he was going to do in this area I don’t think well I certainly wouldn’t characterize the likely the way this would play out the way Jeffrey did nonetheless this was part of the presidential election and it will be part of this Fall’s election and forever rhetorical a pretzel Mitch McConnell was turning himself into or will turn himself into this vote will happen before election day one because the president wants it but more importantly because to do otherwise steps in the way just as McConnell did back with Carlin but not in a way that helps him politically this time it is going to be very difficult for those 10 Senators Democrat Senators defending from States Trump won on this issue before election day it is going to happen before election

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